Worked example
Prime Day Snack Promo
Spanish grocery ASIN · 5% off for 14 days · brand forecasts +20% volume
The deal on our home page, run on the same engine as the product. Every figure below is live output. Open it in the calculator to change any input and watch the verdict move.
for Prime Day Snack Promo
Makes €1,162 more than doing nothing, even at half the forecast (+€107 at Bear). Margin over the month: -99 bps, inside the -200 bps line.
-99
-99 bps over the · -198 bps
559.6
97% of baseline rate
579.4
margin rate without the deal
€1,162
€12,652 deal vs €11,490 baseline
€0.98
€1,190 of invoice funding
The 20.0% uplift this deal assumes clears the 9.0% break-even by 11.0pp of volume. Contribution holds if the volume lands.
No fix needed. Sign it as it stands.
At 5.0% discount and 20.0% expected uplift the portfolio clears the funding threshold, so there is nothing to renegotiate.
Discount stays Fund up to 6.0% applied across every active ASIN (currently 5.0%). Assumes one uniform discount and all other inputs unchanged.
The current value already meets the target
Target: Fund threshold. Scope: portfolio verdict.
All inputs on B0DEMO0001, except the selected variable, stay unchanged.
Expected uplift stays at 20.0%.
The portfolio contains no other active ASINs.
0 risk flags
Risk flags fire independently of the deal recommendation.
Composition metrics compare ASINs against each other, so they need at least 2 active ASINs. This deal has 1.
🐻 Bear
×0.5
+€107Fund
📊 Base
×1.0
+€1,162Fund
🐂 Bull
×1.5
+€2,216Fund
Per-unit margin and break-even uplift are identical across all scenarios. Only volume changes, so each scenario carries its own verdict: the deal reads Fund only if it still makes money at Bear, or loses under 15% of its gain there (so Bear can show Do not fund on a Fund deal).
6.0%
You are at 5.0%
Each rung re-runs the full portfolio at a fixed discount applied to every active ASIN. Expected uplift, costs and duration held constant. Margin delta in bps, over the month (the deal inside a normal 30-day month, what the verdict reads) and during the deal. Each verdict also needs the rung to make money at half the forecast, or lose under 15% of its gain there.
over the month
-98.7
bps · -197.7 during the deal
559.6
Deal PPM: profitability rate
€1,162
deal vs baseline
| Verdict | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0DEMO0001 | Fund | -98.7 bps | -197.7 bps | +€1,162 | 9.0% | +11.0pp |
← Scroll to see all columns
Margin Δ over the
-98.7 bps
-197.7 bps
€1,162
€ back per €1 of
€0.98
9.0%
Makes €1,162 more than doing nothing, even at half the forecast (+€107 at Bear). Margin over the month: -99 bps, inside the -200 bps line. Break-even needs +9.0% against a +20.0% forecast.
Prime Day Snack Promo
Invoice price
€8.50
List cost (COGS)
€3.10
Discount
5.0%
Expected uplift
20.0%
Deal duration
14 days
Monthly baseline
5,000 units
Co-op
2.0%
MDF
0.0%
Accrual
1.0%
Payment terms
1.0%
Freight (on COGS)
3.0%
Leakage
0.5%
VAT (ref only)
21.0%
| Metric | 🐻 Bear | 📊 Base | 🐂 Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective uplift | 10.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| Total contribution | €11,598 | €12,652 | €13,706 |
| vs baseline | +€107 | +€1,162 | +€2,216 |
| vs baseline % | +0.9% | +10.1% | +19.3% |
| Status | Fund | Fund | Fund |
← Scroll to see all columns
Composition metrics compare ASINs against each other, so they need at least 2 active ASINs. This deal has 1.
-98.7 bps
over the month · -197.7 bps during the deal
€1,162
9.0%
Prime Day Snack Promo
+11.0pp
pp vs break-even
9.5%
highest active ASIN
No active flags.
Prime Day Snack Promo
| Line Item | Baseline (€/unit) | Deal (€/unit) | Delta (€/unit) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.500 | 8.075 | −0.425 | |
| -0.085 | -0.081 | +0.004 | |
| = Effective Revenue | 8.415 | 7.994 | −0.421 |
| -3.100 | -3.100 | 0.000 | |
| -0.093 | -0.093 | 0.000 | |
| Less: Co-op | -0.170 | -0.161 | +0.009 |
| Less: MDF | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Less: Accrual | -0.085 | -0.081 | +0.004 |
| Less: Leakage | -0.043 | -0.040 | +0.002 |
| 4.924 | 4.519 | −0.406 | |
| 579.4 ‰ | 559.6 ‰ | −19.8 ‰ |
VAT is reference only and does not appear in brand margin calculations.
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