Worked example
Q4 Deep Discount Event
German grocery ASIN · 15% off for 21 days · brand forecasts +40% volume
A worked example, run on the same engine as the product. Every figure below is live output. Open it in the calculator to change any input and watch the verdict move.
for Q4 Deep Discount Event
Makes €33 if the forecast holds and costs 544 bps of margin over the month, past the 400 bps line; at half the forecast the deal loses €4,778. Break-even needs +39.9%.
On the margin rate alone this would read Do not fund (544 bps over the month); a deal that makes money reads Warning at worst. A +40.0% forecast is above the typical +13% to +38% for a deal at this discount; at +38% this deal loses €448.
-544
-544 bps over the · -740 bps
391.8
84% of baseline rate
465.8
margin rate without the deal
€33
€33,681 deal vs €33,648 baseline
€0.00
€15,170 of invoice funding
The 40.0% uplift this deal assumes clears the 39.9% break-even by 0.1pp of volume. Contribution holds if the volume lands.
Reduce funding to 5.5%
Currently 15.0%. At 5.5% the deal reads Fund; this is the deepest level on the discount ladder that does.
All inputs except the discount stay unchanged.
Current uplift already holds contribution flat
The current estimate of 40.0% already meets the deal contribution target.
Maximum deal discount: 5.9%
Target: Fund threshold. Scope: portfolio verdict.
All inputs on B0DEMO0042, except the selected variable, stay unchanged.
Expected uplift stays at 40.0%.
The portfolio contains no other active ASINs.
1 risk flag
Risk flags fire independently of the deal recommendation.
Portfolio margin delta over the period falls below -300 bps: severe, broad contribution erosion.
Composition metrics compare ASINs against each other, so they need at least 2 active ASINs. This deal has 1.
🐻 Bear
×0.5
−€4,778Do not fund
📊 Base
×1.0
+€33Warning
🐂 Bull
×1.5
+€4,845Warning
Per-unit margin and break-even uplift are identical across all scenarios. Only volume changes, so each scenario carries its own verdict: the deal reads Fund only if it still makes money at Bear, or loses under 15% of its gain there (so Bear can show Do not fund on a Fund deal).
5.5%
You are at 15.0%
Each rung re-runs the full portfolio at a fixed discount applied to every active ASIN. Expected uplift, costs and duration held constant. Margin delta in bps, over the month (the deal inside a normal 30-day month, what the verdict reads) and during the deal. Each verdict also needs the rung to make money at half the forecast, or lose under 15% of its gain there.
over the month
-543.9
bps · -739.8 during the deal
391.8
Deal PPM: profitability rate
€33
deal vs baseline
| Verdict | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0DEMO0042 | Warning | -543.9 bps | -739.8 bps | +€33 | 39.9% | +0.1pp |
← Scroll to see all columns
Margin Δ over the
-543.9 bps
-739.8 bps
€33
€ back per €1 of
€0.00
39.9%
Makes €33 if the forecast holds and costs 544 bps of margin over the month, past the 400 bps line; at half the forecast the deal loses €4,778. Break-even needs +39.9%. On the margin rate alone this would read Do not fund (544 bps over the month); a deal that makes money reads Warning at worst. A +40.0% forecast is above the typical +13% to +38% for a deal at this discount; at +38% this deal loses €448.
Q4 Deep Discount Event
Invoice price
€12.90
List cost (COGS)
€5.20
Discount
15.0%
Expected uplift
40.0%
Deal duration
21 days
Monthly baseline
8,000 units
Co-op
5.0%
MDF
2.0%
Accrual
2.0%
Payment terms
1.0%
Freight (on COGS)
4.0%
Leakage
1.5%
VAT (ref only)
19.0%
| Metric | 🐻 Bear | 📊 Base | 🐂 Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective uplift | 20.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Total contribution | €28,869 | €33,681 | €38,492 |
| vs baseline | −€4,778 | +€33 | +€4,845 |
| vs baseline % | −14.2% | +0.1% | +14.4% |
| Status | Do not fund | Warning | Warning |
← Scroll to see all columns
Composition metrics compare ASINs against each other, so they need at least 2 active ASINs. This deal has 1.
-543.9 bps
over the month · -739.8 bps during the deal
€33
39.9%
Q4 Deep Discount Event
+0.1pp
pp vs break-even
26.5%
highest active ASIN
Q4 Deep Discount Event
| Line Item | Baseline (€/unit) | Deal (€/unit) | Delta (€/unit) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.900 | 10.965 | −1.935 | |
| -0.129 | -0.110 | +0.019 | |
| = Effective Revenue | 12.771 | 10.855 | −1.916 |
| -5.200 | -5.200 | 0.000 | |
| -0.208 | -0.208 | 0.000 | |
| Less: Co-op | -0.645 | -0.548 | +0.097 |
| Less: MDF | -0.258 | -0.219 | +0.039 |
| Less: Accrual | -0.258 | -0.219 | +0.039 |
| Less: Leakage | -0.194 | -0.164 | +0.029 |
| 6.008 | 4.296 | −1.712 | |
| 465.8 ‰ | 391.8 ‰ | −74.0 ‰ |
VAT is reference only and does not appear in brand margin calculations.
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